Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 22.644859 24.678167 26.887403 29.479569 32.455096 35.784893 39.822797
2025-08-17 19.359906 22.094098 25.279222 29.315777 34.372135 40.605329 49.050167
2025-08-24 16.999723 20.076689 23.855591 28.945771 35.801134 44.999473 58.822627
2025-08-31 15.291698 18.550554 22.724776 28.637057 37.109586 49.376880 69.728778
2025-09-07 13.981477 17.333396 21.777557 28.344618 38.279312 53.695541 81.830417
2025-09-14 12.971312 16.379722 21.034471 28.173447 39.515715 58.300839 95.992504
2025-09-21 12.074937 15.479987 20.245647 27.788593 40.294010 62.256601 110.476039
2025-09-28 11.722554 15.295622 20.443141 28.905111 43.692433 71.694077 141.216288
2025-10-05 11.090795 14.648817 19.879109 28.711985 44.752010 76.909655 165.088647
2025-10-12 10.560385 14.105440 19.414911 28.611592 45.940088 82.704233 194.614977
2025-10-19 10.195709 13.778865 19.252008 28.992614 48.101558 91.323608 240.589469
2025-10-26 9.755176 13.303910 18.808388 28.817346 49.103918 97.512153 284.679779
2025-11-02 9.326457 12.828211 18.339146 28.567524 49.967501 103.847786 338.990246
2025-11-09 8.986165 12.470550 18.038129 28.599062 51.466365 112.595119 421.258702
2025-11-16 8.621682 12.052457 17.603618 28.326700 52.232989 119.589747 510.365931
2025-11-23 8.289726 11.667564 17.197685 28.065540 52.984321 126.945916 625.090148
2025-11-30 7.983579 11.307728 16.809770 27.798620 53.678503 134.521159 773.438508
2025-12-07 7.717644 10.999682 16.491548 27.639932 54.623673 143.572292 989.878294
2025-12-14 7.439619 10.657692 16.090801 27.269100 54.952514 150.536480 1236.194063
2025-12-21 7.387845 10.690125 16.364472 28.356535 59.473916 178.007237 2281.104968
2025-12-28 7.164983 10.421232 16.067683 28.169490 60.363820 189.903116 3313.009687
2026-01-04 6.968040 10.187571 15.822016 28.072199 61.511914 204.164197 5315.634868
2026-01-11 6.841464 10.068991 15.784453 28.442864 64.187412 229.356003 12487.216144